Saturday, May 7, 2011
The Weekend Interview with Wolfowitz
This week's Weekend Interview in the Wall Street Journal is an interesting and recommended read. The WSJ sits down with Paul Wolfowitz, often deemed one of the architects of the Iraq War and the neocon movement. Wolfowitz discusses his thoughts on bin Laden, the Arab Spring, Iran, and Iraq. While at times critical of Obama - who had opposed Wolfowitz from his pre-presidential days - Wolfowitz is quite even-handed and provides insightful analysis on the Middle East. Most interesting is that he demurs on crediting the Iraq War for sparking the Arab Spring, arguing that "I think Iraq took so long and was so bloody and is still so uncertain that it would be hard to say that it has inspired people."
Monday, May 2, 2011
What's Next? The Questions Surrounding Bin Laden's Death
A much expanded version of the today's blog post, "What's Next? Bin Laden's Death," has now been published at Futurechallenges.org, under the name "What's Next? The Questions Surrounding bin Laden's Death." Please click the preceding link for a more detailed discussion about some of the issues and questions that will arise over the next few months. And stay tuned - a follow-up article will be written at Futurechallenges, tracing the results of some of these questions.
What's Next? Bin Laden's Death
Presidents Obama and Bush and their respective security and intelligence teams deserve a hearty round of applause for the death of Osama bin Laden last night. After nearly a decade of intelligence gathering and a successful special ops operation, the terrorist mastermind has finally been brought to justice. President Obama particularly deserves credit for executing an extra-judicial killing (the mission was to kill not capture) and handling the event with poise and respectability.
As news reports indicate, bin Laden was killed in a mid-afternoon raid of a compound inside Abbottabad, Pakistan where al-Qaeda’s head was holed up. After a 40 minute battle, Navy SEAL forces were successful in shooting bin Laden in a firefight. Intelligence officials, including CIA director Leon Panetta, were able to watch the operation on a live feed from Virginia. While bin Laden’s death is undoubtedly cause for celebration it raises a couple of “what next” questions.
First, the location of bin Laden’s compound raises some significant questions about Pakistan’s complacency. The compound, described as a near fortress-like facility with four to six meter thick walls topped with barbed wire is located in Abbottabad, Pakistan, a suburb of Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad. Abbottabad is said to be an important seat of the Pakistani government. The building was only a short distance from the Pakistan Military Academy, what BBC has called “the country's equivalent of West Point.”
Whether Pakistan knew of bin Laden’s whereabouts has yet to be determined, but obvious questions are buzzing around the media. It seems dubious that the world’s most wanted terrorist could be holed up in a fortress-like compound a mere 40 miles outside of the capital and across the street from a military college without someone in Pakistan’s government or in the ISI (Pakistan’s intelligence services notoriously known for their ties to al-Qaeda and the Taliban) knowing.
Further news will undoubtedly come forward in the next few days. If it is true that Pakistan had knowledge of bin Laden’s location and failed to assist the United States, it will be impossible for the Obama administration to avoid severe political reprisals against the country. No country or group can be excused for aiding and abetting the world’s most wanted terrorist. While the US will still need to work with Pakistan in the fight against radical Islam, punitive measures would be essential.
Second, while bin Laden’s death is certainly a major win for the United States and the war on terrorism, the West should be careful to avoid reading too deep into its operational significance. There are still many terrorists who wish to see harm brought to America. Bin Laden was, in many ways, a figurehead and his incapacitation does not negate the broader threat. Today we can celebrate, but we must not let down our guard. Instead we must continue to fight those who wish to destroy our way of life. This is especially true in the near future, as security forces have been put on high alert for possible reprisal attacks. For many in the Islamic world, bin Laden was a hero and his death a major loss. The war on terrorism will not be won solely by killing major leaders, but by defeating the very ideology that underpins a hatred of the West.
First, the location of bin Laden’s compound raises some significant questions about Pakistan’s complacency. The compound, described as a near fortress-like facility with four to six meter thick walls topped with barbed wire is located in Abbottabad, Pakistan, a suburb of Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad. Abbottabad is said to be an important seat of the Pakistani government. The building was only a short distance from the Pakistan Military Academy, what BBC has called “the country's equivalent of West Point.”
Whether Pakistan knew of bin Laden’s whereabouts has yet to be determined, but obvious questions are buzzing around the media. It seems dubious that the world’s most wanted terrorist could be holed up in a fortress-like compound a mere 40 miles outside of the capital and across the street from a military college without someone in Pakistan’s government or in the ISI (Pakistan’s intelligence services notoriously known for their ties to al-Qaeda and the Taliban) knowing.
Further news will undoubtedly come forward in the next few days. If it is true that Pakistan had knowledge of bin Laden’s location and failed to assist the United States, it will be impossible for the Obama administration to avoid severe political reprisals against the country. No country or group can be excused for aiding and abetting the world’s most wanted terrorist. While the US will still need to work with Pakistan in the fight against radical Islam, punitive measures would be essential.
Second, while bin Laden’s death is certainly a major win for the United States and the war on terrorism, the West should be careful to avoid reading too deep into its operational significance. There are still many terrorists who wish to see harm brought to America. Bin Laden was, in many ways, a figurehead and his incapacitation does not negate the broader threat. Today we can celebrate, but we must not let down our guard. Instead we must continue to fight those who wish to destroy our way of life. This is especially true in the near future, as security forces have been put on high alert for possible reprisal attacks. For many in the Islamic world, bin Laden was a hero and his death a major loss. The war on terrorism will not be won solely by killing major leaders, but by defeating the very ideology that underpins a hatred of the West.
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Osama bin Laden is Dead!
12:02: bin Laden was in a city, Abbottabad, half-way between Peshawar and Islamabad in an urban area that is a Pakistani government center.
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11:41: Obama emphasizes this is not a war against Islam and that operation was coordinated with Pakistani officials and intelligence services.
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11:40: Intelligence operation found bin Laden in compound within Pakistan. Obama authorized special-ops operation against which killed bin Laden in firefight today. No American's were injured.
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11:35: Obama officially confirms bin Laden is dead.
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11:32: CNN questioning if bin Laden's number two was killed in strikes as well. Unclear if CIA or military special forces operation.
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11:31: Cheering crowds building outside of White House and across country.
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11:28: Analysts questioning implications for relations with Pakistan if reports that bin Laden was living in mansion in urban Islamabad (in central Pakistan) are true.
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11:27: Warnings being sent out to potential targets across the globe to watch for possible terrorist attacks. Fears that there may be a number of reprisal attacks.
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News reports have confirmed that Osama bin Laden has been killed. Most reports indicate that bin Laden was killed while living in a mansion outside of Islamabad, Pakistan a week ago. Preliminary indications state that he was killed not by missile but by a CIA ground operation. The United States apparently has his body and has confirmed his identity using DNA. President Obama supposed to speak at the White House, around 11:15PM.
Fox News
Wall Street Journal
ABC News
BBC News
MSNBC
CNN
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11:41: Obama emphasizes this is not a war against Islam and that operation was coordinated with Pakistani officials and intelligence services.
--------
11:40: Intelligence operation found bin Laden in compound within Pakistan. Obama authorized special-ops operation against which killed bin Laden in firefight today. No American's were injured.
--------
11:35: Obama officially confirms bin Laden is dead.
--------
11:32: CNN questioning if bin Laden's number two was killed in strikes as well. Unclear if CIA or military special forces operation.
--------
11:31: Cheering crowds building outside of White House and across country.
--------
11:28: Analysts questioning implications for relations with Pakistan if reports that bin Laden was living in mansion in urban Islamabad (in central Pakistan) are true.
--------
11:27: Warnings being sent out to potential targets across the globe to watch for possible terrorist attacks. Fears that there may be a number of reprisal attacks.
--------
News reports have confirmed that Osama bin Laden has been killed. Most reports indicate that bin Laden was killed while living in a mansion outside of Islamabad, Pakistan a week ago. Preliminary indications state that he was killed not by missile but by a CIA ground operation. The United States apparently has his body and has confirmed his identity using DNA. President Obama supposed to speak at the White House, around 11:15PM.
Fox News
Wall Street Journal
ABC News
BBC News
MSNBC
CNN
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Shame on the America
Hopefully, today’s release of Obama’s long-form birth certificate, will finally quiet the Birther movement. The Birthers – a rabble that questions Obama’s eligibility to serve as president, due to doubts about his birthplace – have been a political nightmare for Republicans and ultimately America for the past two years.
The truth is that the release of the long-form certificate was not necessary. It has been abundantly clear, for some time now, that the Birther claims were unfounded. As Speaker of the House, John Boehner (R-OH) said in response to today’s release, “This has long been a settled issue.” What is most upsetting, however, is that this matter has reached such a crescendo that it has distracted the nation from a host of very serious problems.
Politically, the Birther movement has, at best, gotten Obama’s opponents nowhere. However in all likelihood, it has actually caused damage to the Republican Party and the anti-Obama agenda. For many Republicans, centrists, and others, the movement only serves as a marker of the eccentricity, anger, and irresponsibility of the Right. It thus drives people away from the Republican brand, making the election of Republicans more difficult, and hence injuring the ability of the Right to enact responsible policies. Furthermore, in a guilt-by-association manner, it can tarnish the very sensible ideas that are rooted in conservative ideology.
If one takes a moment to think of the politics of the issue, it becomes abundantly clear how politically unwinnable the argument was (or is for those who inevitably will find cause to dismiss this latest proof of Obama’s citizenship). First of all, there has been no credible evidence to suggest that Obama was not born in the United States. As is now hopefully even clearer, there has, in fact, been much evidence indicating the contrary. Obama previously released a short-form birth certificate and numerous officials have affirmed the veracity of his Hawaiian birth. The Birther argument had nowhere to go. Impeachment was an illogical and a politically-impossible outcome, one that would clearly have torn the country apart.
Second, even if one assumes that the Birthers were correct and an impeachment trial not only occurred, but was successful in removing the president, where would America be left? With Joe Biden as president (not to mention with even deeper polarization of the political landscape). None of the underlying problems that the right has with Obama would be miraculously cured. While Biden would undoubtedly have some different policies than Obama, the fundamentals would remain. Those who wish to see America’s problems solved and who believe that the Democrats’ agenda cannot achieve this, would be no closer to their real goal.
The point is that the entire argument fails to solve, or even address, the actual issues that are facing this country. This is not meant to imply that the narrow constitutional issue of Obama’s eligibility is not important – it is. However, with the evidence that existed prior to today wholly pointing in one direction (now with hopefully the final nail in the coffin), the Birthers only served as a distraction from pressing issues like the economy and as a great prop for the Democrats to marginalize the Republicans with.
Ad hominem attacks like this should have no place in American politics (of course they are only ad hominem when, as in this instance, there was clearly no substance to the argument). Instead, arguments need to be made to refute the foolish policies of the administration and offer meaningful alternatives. Vitriol and fight need to be turned into discourse and debate.
If Republicans and conservatives want to be viewed with any seriousness and hope to be elected into the positions to right the course of this country, they must focus on solutions to the real problems we face. Fortunately, most mainstream Republican leaders have long-ago distanced themselves from the rhetoric of the Birthers. Nevertheless, the vocalized minority has all but drowned out rational discussion. As Obama said in a statement after the release,
[Note: To be fair, the Birthers are by far not the only group that has served to cause distraction from the real issues. All across America, different groups and individuals are failing to focus on the problems the country faces.]
The truth is that the release of the long-form certificate was not necessary. It has been abundantly clear, for some time now, that the Birther claims were unfounded. As Speaker of the House, John Boehner (R-OH) said in response to today’s release, “This has long been a settled issue.” What is most upsetting, however, is that this matter has reached such a crescendo that it has distracted the nation from a host of very serious problems.
Politically, the Birther movement has, at best, gotten Obama’s opponents nowhere. However in all likelihood, it has actually caused damage to the Republican Party and the anti-Obama agenda. For many Republicans, centrists, and others, the movement only serves as a marker of the eccentricity, anger, and irresponsibility of the Right. It thus drives people away from the Republican brand, making the election of Republicans more difficult, and hence injuring the ability of the Right to enact responsible policies. Furthermore, in a guilt-by-association manner, it can tarnish the very sensible ideas that are rooted in conservative ideology.
If one takes a moment to think of the politics of the issue, it becomes abundantly clear how politically unwinnable the argument was (or is for those who inevitably will find cause to dismiss this latest proof of Obama’s citizenship). First of all, there has been no credible evidence to suggest that Obama was not born in the United States. As is now hopefully even clearer, there has, in fact, been much evidence indicating the contrary. Obama previously released a short-form birth certificate and numerous officials have affirmed the veracity of his Hawaiian birth. The Birther argument had nowhere to go. Impeachment was an illogical and a politically-impossible outcome, one that would clearly have torn the country apart.
Second, even if one assumes that the Birthers were correct and an impeachment trial not only occurred, but was successful in removing the president, where would America be left? With Joe Biden as president (not to mention with even deeper polarization of the political landscape). None of the underlying problems that the right has with Obama would be miraculously cured. While Biden would undoubtedly have some different policies than Obama, the fundamentals would remain. Those who wish to see America’s problems solved and who believe that the Democrats’ agenda cannot achieve this, would be no closer to their real goal.
The point is that the entire argument fails to solve, or even address, the actual issues that are facing this country. This is not meant to imply that the narrow constitutional issue of Obama’s eligibility is not important – it is. However, with the evidence that existed prior to today wholly pointing in one direction (now with hopefully the final nail in the coffin), the Birthers only served as a distraction from pressing issues like the economy and as a great prop for the Democrats to marginalize the Republicans with.
Ad hominem attacks like this should have no place in American politics (of course they are only ad hominem when, as in this instance, there was clearly no substance to the argument). Instead, arguments need to be made to refute the foolish policies of the administration and offer meaningful alternatives. Vitriol and fight need to be turned into discourse and debate.
If Republicans and conservatives want to be viewed with any seriousness and hope to be elected into the positions to right the course of this country, they must focus on solutions to the real problems we face. Fortunately, most mainstream Republican leaders have long-ago distanced themselves from the rhetoric of the Birthers. Nevertheless, the vocalized minority has all but drowned out rational discussion. As Obama said in a statement after the release,
We’ve got some enormous challenges out there…. We’re going to have to make a series of very difficult decisions…. And this is going to generate huge and serious debates, important debates… but we’re not going to be able to do it if we are distracted. We’re not going be able to do it if we spend time vilifying each other…. We’re not going to be able to solve our problems if we get distracted by sideshows and carnival barkers.America – both left and right – has a duty to move past these petty squabbles, take some personal responsibility, and fix our broken system, before it is too late.
[Note: To be fair, the Birthers are by far not the only group that has served to cause distraction from the real issues. All across America, different groups and individuals are failing to focus on the problems the country faces.]
The Psychology of Obama
Dana Milbank writes in today's Washington Post on the ramifications of Obama's cerebral nature. Without taking a stance on whether this is good or bad, he explores, through consultation with academics, how Obama's seemingly inconsistent policies are the result of a high level of analysis and thought. Milbank credits this with being the root of many of the criticisms and frustrations people experience with Obama. Milbank argues that unlike Bush, Obama's psychology makes him difficult to read and thus immensely frustrating to the average voter.
While Milbank dances around the obvious conclusion, it seems clear that if his characterization is correct - and it is quite convincing - Obama possesses a set of detrimental characteristics that, while possibly making him a great policy adviser, make him a poor president. Milbank writes, "In an ideal world, complex and rational thought would be virtues. But in politics, these attributes can make Obama seem ambiguous, without toughness or principles." The unfortunate conclusion seems to be that the high level of emotion and rhetoric needed in today's politics makes a thoughtful academic a poor politician. Accordingly, Obama's intellectualism has failed to rally his own base, while angering both the opposing side and his own supporters with unpopular polices.
While Milbank dances around the obvious conclusion, it seems clear that if his characterization is correct - and it is quite convincing - Obama possesses a set of detrimental characteristics that, while possibly making him a great policy adviser, make him a poor president. Milbank writes, "In an ideal world, complex and rational thought would be virtues. But in politics, these attributes can make Obama seem ambiguous, without toughness or principles." The unfortunate conclusion seems to be that the high level of emotion and rhetoric needed in today's politics makes a thoughtful academic a poor politician. Accordingly, Obama's intellectualism has failed to rally his own base, while angering both the opposing side and his own supporters with unpopular polices.
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