UN Embarrasses Itself - Again

The United Nations General Assembly (GA) has once again made a fool of itself. In proceedings today, it held a minute of silence as a sign of respect for the death of North Korean dictator (and general madman) Kim Jong-il, who died this past Saturday. The president of the GA, Nassir Abdulaziz Al-Nasser, called for a twenty-five second ovation, stating:

It is my sad duty to pay tribute to the memory of the late Kim Jong-il, Secretary-General of the Workers Party of Korea, Chairman of the National Defence Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Supreme Commander of the Korean People's Army, who passed away on Saturday, December 17...

While Western leaders boycotted the ceremony and the GA meeting was sparsely attended, the honoring of such a tyrant as Kim Jong-il rudely displays the daftness of the UN, representing yet another utter failure to even approach a reasonable interpretation of the United Nations' founding principles. It also signifies a capitulation to the worst form of North Korean propagandizing, creating even more material for the North Korean leadership to brainwash their people into accepting the supposed successes and laudatory nature of the failing regime.

Of course such behavior from the UN General Assembly is not surprising. However, as it continues to let itself be used as a political forum for the world's most hateful regimes, despotic dictators, and terrorist organizations to spew their hatred, it only serves to undermine any sense of morality in the international system.

Carrots in North Korea: Some Smart Foreign Policy

Although Obama’s foreign policy is often off-base, the administration must be commended for its recent handling of the North Korean journalist-cum-hostage situation. Two American journalists, held by Kim Jong-Il’s regime were released after Former President Bill Clinton descended on North Korea.

The exploit was truly a move of smart diplomacy. It allowed the United States to stick course with its current spoken strategy, while enabling sufficient stroking of Kim Jong-Il’s ego to facilitate the release of Laura Ling and Euna Lee. While the Obama administration has generally claimed non-involvement, it is clear that they played a predominant role in approving and developing the mission. Apparently, much pre-planning occurred; including discussions with the North Koreans on what unofficial American envoy would have high enough stature to make the trip.

This recent event highlights an important characteristic of North Korea – they want things from America. Unlike Iran which views itself largely as a counter-weight and antagonist of America, North Korea sees, at least some aspects of the West which it desires. While not all of North Korea’s behavior can be understood as motivated by wanting something from America, in this instance that is precisely the case. North Korea wanted recognition from the United States– represented by the visitation of a prestigious emissary.

The North Korean desire for items of value gives the United States considerable power over the regime. The U.S. can use these “shiny objects” to coerce North Korea into behaving in an acceptable fashion. In many ways, North Korea is like a defiant child. It wants recognition; it wants to feel important. If it fails to get what it wants it throws a temper-tantrum. However as most parents know, the logic in dealing with such a child (although not always the practice) is straightforward. Misbehavior is punished; good behavior is rewarded.

This is something that the Obama administration needs to exploit. While Bill Clinton's journey into the third pillar of the Axis-of-Evil demonstrates the administration’s understanding of rewarding good behavior, the administration, as has been argued before, has yet to show a strong commitment to punishing misbehavior. A failure to punish misbehavior severely weakens the equally important goal of rewarding good behavior. In fact, it encourages misbehavior. Nations (and people) will misbehave if they can then backtrack and be rewarded for ‘good behavior’.

Because of this, the two tactics in conjunction are necessary when dealing with North Korea. Carrots and sticks will help push the regime in the right direction. Too many carrots, however, will deplete America’s ability to influence North Korea’s behavior. After all, if Kim Jong-Il gets everything he wants he’ll have no incentive to listen to us. While this episode of Clintonian mediation may be a strong and successful example of diplomacy at its best, care must be taken to avoid the mistaken belief that anything has fundamentally changed in the relationship with North Korea. The regime will test the United States again. The administration must be ready to respond with punishment and show the regime what behavior is and is not acceptable.

Flouting the Rules

Once again North Korea has flouted international rules.  This time it has conducted nuclear tests and launched short-range missiles. (See Fox News http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,521821,00.html?test=latestnews).  As it has done before, North Korea is testing Washington and thumbing its nose at the world.  So far, the current administration, alongside the international community, has done little to stem North Korea’s unacceptable behaviors.

As has been discussed in this blog and elsewhere, North Korea’s rogue actions are unacceptable.  The Obama administration pays lip service to this. However, it has thus far failed to send a convincing message to the North Koreans.  Instead, North Korea receives a pleasant message that Washington will only talk and will not act decisively against belligerent actions.  Kim Jong-Il and his cronies are responding to Obama’s rampant pacifism by testing how far they can go.  These missile launches and nuclear tests are a gauge of America’s willingness to impede North Korean actions.  So far the message is clear – North Korea can do what it wants.

The administration does much to weaken its position, by packaging condemnations of belligerent actions with the stated policy of appeasement and discussion only.  This weak position is seen clearly in the President’s statement following the nuclear test (See the White House website http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/STATEMENT-FROM-THE-PRESIDENT-REGARDING-NORTH-KOREA/).  Obama condemns the actions, but then reverts to the policy prescriptions of discussions.  The press release outlines everything that is wrong with the tests, but only offers a response of more talk about and less international acceptance of North Korea.

The United States has to offer a decisive and firm response to these latest tests.  It must be unequivocal that these behaviors are unacceptable.  Kim Jong-Il must understand that North Korea will suffer severe punishments if it continues to test the world.  This can be accomplished through open discussion of possible military action against the rogue state.  As of now, it is imprudent to launch an attack against the country; however, laying the option on the table could go a long way towards emphasizing the gravity of failing to abide by international standards.

North Korea must see the folly of their ways.  Strong language and threats of severe action must be made to deter further provocations.  If strong statements from the UN are stymied by Chinese hesitation, the United States must stand up to North Korea alone (or with any willing participants).  While a military attack is certainly a response that should be discussed, other less severe actions should be laid out- and acted upon immediately.  Otherwise, Kim Jong-Il will know that he has freedom to do whatever he desires, with only the risk of a mild tongue lashing in response.

A Nuclear Tipping Point

“It appears that we are at a ‘tipping point’ in proliferation. If Iran and North Korea proceed unchecked to build nuclear arsenals, there is a serious possibility of a cascade of proliferation following. And as each new nuclear power is added the probability of a terror group getting a nuclear bomb increases.”

So states a recent bi-partisan Congressional Commission report on the “strategic posture” of the United States. The report, which was presented to Congress a week ago, outlines a two-pronged approach for the U.S.’s nuclear policy: (1) continued deterrence and (2) arms control and nonproliferation. (See here for the report http://www.usip.org/strategic_posture/).

Throughout its discussion on nonproliferation, the Commission emphasized that we are at, or near, a dangerous tipping point. It stressed that without continued American and Russian support for nonproliferation we may reach a point where the spread of nuclear weaponry becomes uncontrollable and extremely dangerous.

Implicit in the report, is that a nuclear Iran would spawn a Middle Eastern arms race. Accordingly, some Middle Eastern nations are already in the process of mimicking Iran’s nuclear program. This will have disastrous effects on the already unstable region. The first, more conventional worry revolves around the creation of a new breed of regional nuclear powers. This will weaken America’s position in the region and create a higher stakes political game. It is easy to see how the Middle Eastern dynamic would substantially change with a number of the large states – perhaps Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq (not to mention the already nuclear Israel) – operating under a nuclear umbrella.

More importantly perhaps, is the risk that such a third-world nuclear arms race would be vastly unsecure. These governments run the risk of ‘losing’ weaponry that could find its way into the hands of non-state actors and terrorists. An increase in the number of countries with active nuclear programs greatly increases the probability that a nuclear warhead ends up in Al-Qaeda’s hands. Simply stated, aspiring entrants to the nuclear club do not have the same institutions and controls, or the stable populations (read Islamists) that the current nuclear powers have.

As most people are well aware of, the current stable system of nuclear deterrence and international cooperation is ill equipped to handle such non-state, nuclear powers.
Nonproliferation is necessary to avoid the inevitable struggles that would occur should non-state actors obtain nuclear weaponry. While the Commission report praises Obama for his actions regarding deterrence, it calls on the President to take further steps to set the nonproliferation agenda. “Good leadership,” it states “requires setting the example.” The report goes as far as to state that if Obama’s open-arms approach to Iran and North Korea “fail[s], we might then have reached a point where the nonproliferation regime is substantially if not fatally injured.”

This is a point that Republicans must seize on. While the Right has been consistent in its criticism of Obama’s foreign policy, these criticisms have to take on more of serious policy discussion, rather than the alarmism that is so often used. Obama is taking too much of risk by recognizing Iran’s and North Korea’s demands. The U.S., alongside Russia, must unequivocally state that the ‘nuclear club’ is closed to new members. If we fail to promote nonproliferation, we will move dangerously close to a complete collapse of the stable global nuclear system.

Time Out for North Korea

Yesterday’s missile launch, by North Korea, is not only dangerous but unacceptable. As it has done in the past, particularly in the early days of a new President’s administration, North Korea is flaunting international rules in a provocative fashion and directly challenging America. President Obama and the world community, including the feeble Security Council, need to strongly respond with actions.

The North Korean launch is particularly dangerous in light of its potential destabilizing nature. It signifies the fact that North Korea is at, or near, having the capabilities to launch its nuclear arsenal into Japan or possibly the Western United States. Contrary to North Korea’s assertions that the purpose of the launch was to put a satellite in orbit, all evidence and sources confirm that this was a military test (NORAD states that no satellite entered orbit; http://www.norad.mil/News/2009/040509.html).

This puts a number of US allies, including Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and possibly the US itself, at risk. At a minimum, it is a metaphorical flex of the North Korean muscle and a spit in the face of the international system. Furthermore, North Korea has demonstrated a willingness to sell arms and technologies to anyone who wishes to buy. This consists of terrorist states, such as Iran, and non-state actors. This can easily lead to the spread of dangerous weaponry into other unstable parts of the world, particularly the Middle East.

Unsurprisingly, today’s emergency Security Council meeting yielded nothing (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30035197). As usual, the Security Council proved that it is both unwilling and unable to stop the confrontational actions of defiant states. At a minimum, tougher sanctions and strong, unified language from the world community are necessary. North Korea must be made well aware that it cannot flout international rules and agreements with impunity. North Korea cannot be rewarded for this behavior with recognition of ‘its voice’ or a seat at new negotiations, as it might want. Much like a temper-tantrum throwing child, it must be punished for its behavior before it can be treated like an adult.

However, as has been seen in the past, sanctions and rhetoric have had minimal impact on North Korean behavior. Much of this is due to Russia’s and particularly China’s unwillingness to cooperate. Possibly, the only way to check North Korean ambition is for the United States to convince Russia and China to fall into line. Pressure on Russia can easily be exercised using the new and controversial missile shield in the Czech Republic and Poland. After all, if rogue states are in the position to launch long distance attacks, defense systems are necessary. Likewise, US interests in the Pacific might need increased protection from a missile attack from North Korea. An augmented US force might push China into taking some actions.

Without serious action, and legitimate support by China, the region is subject to increased anxiety and potential destabilization. Japan and South Korea can only get more uncomfortable with an evermore brazen and insolent North Korea. Naturally, it is highly desirable to avoid an arms race or other actions made in the face of fear.

The US administration has to step up and push China. Unfortunately, it has so far demonstrated an unwillingness to push other nations into line- a most dangerous policy. One can only hope that the administration understands the foolishness of their foreign policy before irreversible damage to US strength and credibility is done.