tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6741897648980433465.post519119532090276783..comments2023-08-05T04:20:38.120-04:00Comments on A New Republican: Sitting Ducks?Josh Grundlegerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01827125493183670561noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6741897648980433465.post-40020845240719257372010-05-21T10:15:46.211-04:002010-05-21T10:15:46.211-04:00Karl~
You are right. I don't mean to oversim...Karl~<br /><br />You are right. I don't mean to oversimplify the election. There are certainly many other factors that come into play - the economy certainly one of the biggest.<br /><br />But bad economies tend, as you point out, to hurt incumbents in general. This is often regardless of whether the particular economic downturn was the 'fault' of the sitting leaders or not (I tend to think politicians get too much credit for good economies and too much blame for bad economies, much, I believe, is outside their control - but thats a different argument).<br /><br />But I dont think that weakens the argument presented here. Instead it is one of the factors that have made this such a bad season for incumbency. I don't think it is the sole factor though, and while the economy is at record lows, it did start its decline prior to Obama. While I think it is inevitable that he would lose popularity, no matter what he did, I do think these other story lines help to explain some of the loss.<br /><br />And do note that I don't think incumbency is just a problem for the Democrats. Obviously, Obama overreach is not going to hurt GOP incumbents. The economy is certainly a factor there as is the simple fact of the 'establishment' (see my fourth point).<br /><br />~JoshJosh Grundlegerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01827125493183670561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6741897648980433465.post-49737167991104878632010-05-21T07:43:05.582-04:002010-05-21T07:43:05.582-04:00Josh--
For such a long post, I found it interesti...Josh--<br /><br />For such a long post, I found it interesting that the word "economy" is not mentioned once. You're over-thinking the politics: people are out of work, unemployment is still high, and while the economy is no longer in danger of free fall — well, at least not where we were in spring '09 — recovery is still difficult for people to see.<br /><br />You write that incumbency is more difficult now than in years past. Come on. A sluggish American economy helped write the music for Kennedy's "time to get America moving again" campaign in 1960, while James Carville memorably penned the words "it's the economy, stupid," while kicking George Bush out of office in 1992. In both cases, the incumbent party did a respectable job of managing the economy, yet circumstances beyond their control influenced the political landscape.<br /><br />Bottom line is that people vote their wallets, and when the party in power — always the ones who pledged to "change" Washington — is incapable of performing magic tricks, they take the blame for the people's misery.<br /><br />It's fun to blame this on an overreaching liberal agenda and a megalomaniac president bent on reshaping the American system to suit his Leninist fantasies. But as usual, things are not so complicated.<br /><br />--KarlKVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03287825585878661745noreply@blogger.com